Are Ukrainians really leaving the country en masse: what the data from the NBU and the State Border Service show

The migration situation in Ukraine remains in the spotlight. Find out what the data from the NBU and the State Border Service show, whether Ukrainians are really leaving the country en masse, and how passenger traffic changed in the fall of 2025

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Migration remains one of the most sensitive issues for Ukrainian society. Recently, there have been claims in the public sphere about the alleged mass exodus of Ukrainians abroad. At the same time, official statistics from various state institutions paint a more complex and ambiguous picture.

NBU data: increase in the number of Ukrainians abroad

The macroeconomic and monetary review of the National Bank of Ukraine, citing the UN and Eurostat, notes that between October 3 and November 14, 2025, the number of Ukrainians abroad increased almost as much as in the previous nine months.

As of November 14, there were 5.9 million citizens outside Ukraine, which is 128,000 more than at the beginning of October. For comparison, in January-September 2025, the increase was 166,000 people. Thus, in a month and a half of the autumn migration period, the migration growth almost equaled the figures for three quarters of the year.

The NBU cites several possible factors for this trend:

● intensified russian attacks on civilian infrastructure, which affects the sense of security;

● permission for men aged 18–22 to travel abroad, which has expanded the circle of people who can legally cross the border.

These data often form the basis for sensational statements about a “mass wave of emigration.” However, they reflect the total number of Ukrainians abroad, not the daily or monthly intensity of border crossings.

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Position of the State Border Service: passenger traffic is decreasing

However, the State Border Service of Ukraine paints a different picture. Spokesperson Andriy Demchenko said during a telethon that passenger traffic has not been growing in recent months, but rather declining. According to him:

● In September, the number of people leaving Ukraine prevailed.

● in October, the ratio between departures and arrivals evened out to 50/50;

● in November, arrivals to Ukraine once again prevailed.

Overall, a downward trend was observed in the fall, and current passenger traffic is at its lowest level in the last three months.

How many people cross the border every day

The State Border Guard Service also provides specific figures:

● On weekdays, about 70,000 Ukrainian citizens cross the border in both directions.

● On weekends, there are no more than 90,000 crossings, whereas a month ago these figures exceeded 90,000.

It is important to note that Ukrainian citizens account for about 85% of the total passenger traffic, meaning that their behavior determines the overall statistics.

The State Border Service also predicts a traditional increase in border traffic during the New Year and Christmas holidays. According to the agency's estimates, an increase in passenger traffic is possible closer to the 20th of December.

For Ukrainians who are planning to travel abroad by car during this period, it is important to take care of the necessary documents in advance. In particular, a Green Card — an international motor insurance policy — is required for travel to European countries. Ukrainians can apply for a Green Card for travel abroad online on the Visit Ukraine platform, which allows them to prepare for their trip without unnecessary delays at the border.

We remind you! Ukrainian international railway routes are moving to a new level of comfort. Long stops at the border are gradually becoming a thing of the past, and travel is becoming much faster and more predictable. Passengers will be able to complete all the necessary procedures directly in the carriage, without additional queues and waiting. Read more about how the updated control format will work and when it will be introduced.

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