How many Ukrainians plan to return home after the war: a sociologist's assessment

The migration sentiments of Ukrainians abroad are changing along with the duration of the war. Find out what percentage of Ukrainians actually plan to return home after the war and what factors influence this decision

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Ukrainian migration caused by full-scale war remains one of the key challenges for the country's future. Find out what percentage of Ukrainians abroad are currently ready to return home after the war ends and why these sentiments are changing

Only a third declare their readiness to return

About a third of Ukrainians who left the country due to the full-scale war currently say they intend to return to Ukraine after it ends. At the same time, the actual confidence in returning is significantly lower — no more than 10% among all those who currently live outside the country.

This was stated in an interview with RBC-Ukraine by Oleksiy Antypovych, head of the Rating Sociological Group.

According to the sociologist, these figures differ significantly from the sentiments recorded at the beginning of the full-scale invasion.

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How the sentiments of Ukrainians abroad have changed

At the beginning of the war, two-thirds of forced migrants declared their desire to return to Ukraine after the end of hostilities, and at certain periods, even the majority. However, over time, this figure has gradually declined.

Antipovich explains that even among this conditional third who are ready to return, perhaps only about 10% say they will definitely return after the war. The rest are unsure or are postponing their decision. Therefore, the percentage of those who will actually return will be very small.

The sociologist cites the process of adaptation as one of the main reasons for the decline in intentions to return. A significant proportion of Ukrainians have already gone through the so-called second stage of integration in European countries, particularly in Germany.

This refers not only to domestic stability, but also to: established housing, work or study, the adaptation of children to a new educational system, and the formation of social ties.

Against this backdrop, returning to Ukraine seems like a difficult and uncertain step for many.

Antipovich separately emphasizes the structural problems that hinder the decision to return. First and foremost, these are issues of housing and employment.

“If you left Mariupol, where would you return to?”, the sociologist notes.

The lack of preserved housing, uncertain prospects on the labor market, and the general instability of post-war recovery are becoming serious barriers to the return of even those who are emotionally attached to Ukraine.

Demographic challenges for Ukraine

According to the head of the Rating Sociological Group, Ukraine will face a number of serious demographic problems in the medium and long term. Among the key risks, he names:

● a further decline in the birth rate;

● a shortage of working-age population;

● the aging of the population remaining in the country.

The mass non-return of citizens after the war could have a significant impact on the economy, the social sphere, and the pace of the country's recovery.

We remind you! Ukraine ranks second among the most dangerous countries in the world according to the Global Peace Index 2025. The rating has already sparked heated debate, as Ukraine was recognized as less safe than countries with active civil wars. Read how this index is formed and what really lies behind these figures.

Photo: BBC

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