Wie wird die Nachkriegsukraine aussehen und warum verlassen sich Demografen nur auf Arbeitsmigranten?

Demografen haben eine Prognose zur Bevölkerung in der Ukraine nach dem Krieg erstellt, und sie ist enttäuschend. Laut dem Institut für Demografie und Sozialforschung der Nationalen Akademie der Wissenschaften der Ukraine leben derzeit 31 Millionen Menschen im von der Regierung kontrollierten Gebiet, und bis 2025 könnte die Bevölkerung in der Ukraine auf 25 Millionen sinken. Erfahren Sie, wie die Arbeitsmigration die Situation retten und neue Arbeitsplätze in der Ukraine schaffen kann.

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According to the NBU's inflation report, in 2024-2025, the outflow of population in Ukraine will continue, and under current conditions, about 700,000 more people will leave for abroad. In our today's article, we will analyze the opinions of various experts on the demographic crisis that has emerged in Ukraine due to the military aggression of the Russian Federation, and try to find ways to solve this problem through the prism of perceiving labor migration in Ukraine as an urgent need.

Demographic crisis in Ukraine. Causes, consequences, forecasts

The negative forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine is due to many military factors and risks, including the significant destruction of Ukraine's energy system. Russia continues to terrorize the Ukrainian population with attacks on energy and other public infrastructure, which forces people to leave Ukraine, especially as the cold season approaches.

The outflow of population due to energy problems in Ukraine affects not only people's everyday life, but also businesses, as frequent power outages have a negative impact on production processes. This, in turn, forces businesses to close production facilities, which means cutting jobs, which means increasing the number of people willing to leave Ukraine.

In addition, the security risks associated with the war in Ukraine slow down any economic growth in the country, which also negatively affects demographics.

Among the factors of the demographic catastrophe in Ukraine is the sad mortality rate: according to Opendatabot, citing the Ministry of Justice, there are currently three deaths for every newborn citizen of Ukraine, and this ratio is crucial in demographic crises.

Experts have calculated that under the most positive forecasts of the end of the war in Ukraine, the nearest return of Ukrainian migrants home will begin in 2026, and will be gradual, initially no more than 300-400 thousand people a year.

The NBU report also states that the number of internally displaced persons will also remain high until 2026, as many people have nowhere to return to, and this will have an impact on the economy.

Ways to solve demographic problems in Ukraine: expert opinion

Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, in an interview, said that Ukraine will never have either 50 or 40 million people, and the only way out of this demographic hole is intensive labor migration to Ukraine, and it is not about Europeans...

The expert also noted that population density is important for the demographic situation. For example, before the full-scale invasion in 2022, there were 45 people per square kilometer of Ukrainian territory, which was already too low compared to Europe. Therefore, Libanova is convinced that the country must restructure its economic structure to have a chance to equalize demographics and thus boost the national economy.

"It is difficult to organize a large territory with a small number of people. However, there is Norway, where, if I'm not mistaken, 14 people live per square kilometer. But there are forests, fjords, and a different economic structure. So if we can rebuild the structure of the economy, then yes, we can get by with a smaller population," explained the director of the Institute of Demography.

Earlier, we told you who among labor migrants does not need a work permit in Ukraine and why it is beneficial and convenient for representatives of different professions.

The expert predicted that in the post-war period, the population density of Ukraine will be extremely different in different regions, but on average it will be no more than 30 people per square kilometer, and the population will not exceed 26-35 million people by 2033.

Libanova's opinion that after the war there will be a very high demand for construction professions in Ukraine, and this demand will have to be met through labor migration, is also logical. In other words, Ukraine will have to invite foreigners from other countries to cover the demand for the profession.

Labor migrants are not a panacea, but a way out

The demographic crisis naturally creates a crisis in the labor market, and if Ukraine is going to grow economically, it is essential to address this issue.

Between 2013 and 2023, according to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, our country lost almost half of its labor capital. Thus, back in 2013, the share of the employed population in Ukraine was 19.3 million people, and as of the beginning of 2023, this figure dropped to 9 million people.

Another expert shared his opinion on how to solve the deplorable situation in the labor market with the help of labor migrants. Mykola Zazuliak, CEO and founder of the international HR service NUWORKERS, told Forbes in an interview why attracting labor migrants is the best option to overcome the complex crisis.

According to the expert, the outflow of economically active population at the level of 30%-50% is a very dangerous indicator, because even Germany lost 16-18% of its employed population in World War II. That is why, according to Zozulyak, attracting migrants to Ukraine is a chance to overcome this significant deficit in the labor market. Such an approach to demographic problems is used, for example, by Romania, which, after joining the EU and the massive migration of its labor population to Western Europe, began to actively attract workers from Asia for low-skilled jobs.

We have provided up-to-date information on how foreigners can get a job in Ukraine here.

Mykola Zozulyak is confident that the involvement of migrants in such sectors of the Ukrainian economy as construction, agriculture, heavy and textile industries, the logistics sector, and others can help the state to find a direct solution to both the labor crisis and the demographic crisis in general in the shortest possible time.

"If economically active people do not return to Ukraine, the birth rate does not increase, and those mobilized remain in the Armed Forces, we cannot escape from attracting labor migrants. And we don't need to, because this is a normal process of our time. Only from 1990 to 2015, the developed world economies had a share of migrants of up to 50%, and today the share of EU labor migrants is 12% of the total working population. And even China, which for the first time in a long time has recorded a decline in population, is already thinking about labor migration," the expert says.

Thus, the employment of migrants in Ukraine is already relevant for both the state and individual labor migrants.

To understand how labor migration works and what prospects it offers migrants, you can read here. Also, on the Visit Ukraine portal, you can seek advice from our lawyers on migration issues for foreigners. Our specialists will provide competent answers to all your questions and, if necessary, help you at any stage of paperwork before/during/after moving to Ukraine, as well as organize full legal support during the stay of foreigners in Ukrainian cities.

Just to remind you! In order for a foreigner to obtain a residence permit in Ukraine in connection with employment, the foreign employee must personally apply for this visa at the Ukrainian embassy at the place of his/her citizenship or permanent residence.

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