Did Russia attack Ukraine with an Oreshnik intercontinental ballistic missile? What is known and what are the consequences?

The night-time missile alert in Ukraine raised a number of questions. The unusual nature and unexpected location of the strike prompted residents to speculate about a possible attack by a Russian medium-range ballistic missile. Find out what is known about the strike

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On the night of 9 January, Ukraine experienced one of the most alarming missile threats in recent times. The Ukrainian Air Force reported the danger of ballistic weapons being used throughout the country. Almost immediately after the air raid alert was announced, explosions were heard in the Lviv region, with a critical infrastructure facility coming under attack.

According to preliminary data, Russia could have launched the missiles from the Kapustin Yar test site in the Astrakhan region, where the Oreshnik missile complex is believed to be based.

What is known at this point

Yuriy Ignat, head of communications for the Ukrainian Air Force Command, told Ukrainska Pravda that the information is being verified, but the version about the launch from Kapustin Yar is considered likely.

This refers to a ballistic missile that could have been launched without a warhead. Monitoring channels and military sources agree that in this case, the strike was of a demonstrative nature — similar to the previous episode in Dnipro.

It is important to emphasise:

– the version about the missile being directed towards Stryi has not been officially confirmed;

– according to monitors, the locations of possible impacts have already been identified, but the exact characteristics of the missile and its configuration have not been disclosed;

At this point, only one thing has been confirmed: the threat was real, and the nature of the launch was atypical for conventional strikes with cruise or operational-tactical missiles.

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The Oreshnik missile: what kind of weapon is it?

Russia first announced the combat use of the latest Oreshnik ballistic missile on 21 November 2024 during a strike on Ukraine. At that time, experts' attention was drawn to the unusual flight parameters and visual effects upon entering the atmosphere.

Oreshnik is an intercontinental ballistic missile launched from a mobile launcher.

According to him, the complex is known under the designation 15P771, and the missile itself is called R-28. Its flight speed reaches up to 28,000 km/h (approximately 28 Mach), and at the approach stage to the target — about 10 Mach.

The key feature of the missile is its separable warhead. It consists of six individual guidance units, which diverge at the end of the trajectory and are capable of hitting several targets at once. It is this effect — the bright separation of the units upon entering the atmosphere — that was observed by eyewitnesses during previous launches, including in Dnipro.

At the same time, the Oreshnik is not a high-precision weapon: the possible deviation from the target can reach 50 metres. This emphasises that its main purpose is not precision strikes, but strategic pressure and a demonstration of capabilities.

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Reminder! The Russian authorities have announced an ‘attack on Putin's residence’ and threatened a retaliatory strike. Against the backdrop of tense negotiations and information pressure, Moscow is stepping up its rhetoric, while Kyiv is warning of possible strikes on the capital and key facilities. Find out when Russia may launch a new strike.

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