Seulement 10 % des Européens croient que l'Ukraine va gagner la guerre : les habitants de quels pays sont plus pessimistes

La guerre en Ukraine dure maintenant depuis deux ans. Pendant ce temps, la société de l'Union européenne s'est unie comme jamais auparavant et a aidé les Ukrainiens à gagner. Cependant, l'invasion de la Russie s'est prolongée et l'opinion sur la victoire de l'Ukraine a quelque peu changé. Découvrez ce que les gens en Europe pensent de l'issue de la guerre maintenant

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After two years of full-scale war, support for Ukraine in Europe remains high, but the level of those who believe that the country will succeed in defeating the russian occupiers is only 10%.

These are the conclusions of a survey conducted by YouGov on behalf of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

According to the survey, conducted in January in 12 EU member states, the halt of Ukraine's counter-offensive, growing fears of a change in US policy, and the prospect of a second presidential term for Donald Trump have changed the mood about the outcome of the war.

On average, only 10% of EU citizens believe that Ukraine will win, while 20% believe that russia will win. The most common answer among Europeans is that the war will end in a compromise settlement (37%).

In which countries do people believe in Ukraine's victory more?

People in Poland, Sweden and Portugal are the most likely to believe in Ukraine's success - 17% of residents each (less than one in five respondents). At the same time, people in Greece, Hungary and Italy believe in the success of the Ukrainian army the least. In Hungary and Greece, about 30% of respondents believe that russia will win the war.

As for the issue of assistance, people in Sweden (50%), Portugal (48%) and Poland (47%) are more likely to believe that Europe should help Ukraine fight back. In contrast, in Hungary (64%), Greece (59%), Italy (52%) and Romania (50%), the majority wants Ukraine to be forced to negotiate.

Moreover, many Europeans increasingly believe that russia's war against Ukraine directly affects them. 33% said it has a greater impact on their country - and on Europe (29%) - than the war in the Middle East (compared to 5% who said the opposite).

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What do people think about the victory in Ukraine?

In January, the Razumkov Centre's social service conducted a survey in Ukraine. According to the results, 85% of Ukrainians believe in the victory of the Armed Forces.

However, the country is divided on what exactly is considered a victory over the aggressor.

Thus, among those who believe in the victory, 38% of respondents believe that the victory will result in the expulsion of russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine and the restoration of the borders as of January 2014.

Another 27% believe that the victory will be the destruction of the enemy army and the promotion of an uprising/disintegration within russia.

In addition, 13% of respondents would consider the restoration of the status quo as of 23 February 2022 a victory, 7% would consider the expulsion of russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine, except for the occupied Crimea, and 4% would consider the end of the war, even if the russian army remains in the territories captured as a result of a full-scale invasion (after 24 February 2022).

The majority of Ukrainian citizens (40%) believe that victory over the occupier will come in 1-2 years.

We remind you! On 24 February, it was exactly two years ago that the russian army invaded Ukraine. During this time, the Ukrainian people have probably gone through one of the most difficult periods in their history. Read here to find out what these two years at the front have been like and what the consequences are for Ukraine.

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