Putins Tod, die Ermordung der US-Wahl und die digitale Apokalypse: eine Liste von Spoilern oder was wird der schwarze Schwan von 2024 sein?

Futuristen, Politikwissenschaftler und Prognostiker haben herausgefunden, welche unerwarteten, aber durchaus möglichen Ereignisse zu einem globalen Umbruch und Chaos führen könnten. Erfahren Sie, was in diesem Jahr einen Schock auslösen und eine echte Apokalypse in der Welt provozieren könnte

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Politico journalists turned to experts to find out what unpredictable but quite likely events could happen in 2024 and lead to global chaos. The publication notes that even seemingly unbelievable things can become our reality.

"Global pandemic. The siege of the Capitol. A reality TV star in the White House. Even in the last few years, the world has witnessed the unthinkable become a reality. Everyone thinks we know exactly what awaits us in politics and beyond, and then something very big and unexpected happens," Politico writes.

Who compiled the list of spoilers for 2024?

The journalists turned to a number of technologists and futurists, historians and political scientists, foreign policy analysts, and other experienced forecasters whose specialty is identifying future risks. The main question was: what could be a "black swan" event that would create an unexpected turn in 2024, when the United States goes to the polls?

"Our experts suggested a range of disruptions and catastrophes created by nature, humanity, and even aliens," Politico summarized. 

So, what are the "black swans" of 2024 and what could cause global chaos in the world?

Disrupted elections in the United States

The US elections, which are due to take place this year, are important not only for the country itself but also for Ukraine, for obvious reasons. However, what could go wrong? Jan Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, made his forecast and noted that "a disruption of the 2024 US elections seems to me quite likely and is a matter of deep concern." According to him, the disruption could be caused by anything from cyberattacks to terrorism, because "there are many rivals (I'm looking at you, russia, Iran, and North Korea) who are only dreaming of plunging the Americans into as much chaos as possible."

At the same time, other experts believe that even a murder in the US elections could become a "black swan."

War with China or a Chinese surprise

Matthew Burroughs, program director of the Center for Strategic Foresight at the Stimson Center, who was formerly director of foresight at the Scowcroft Strategic Initiative at the Atlantic Council, said there are two incredible scenarios that could become reality in 2024. The first is the declaration of Taiwan's independence and, accordingly, a war with China, and the second is a financial catastrophe in China that will lead to a global recession.

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The coup in russia and the uprising against putin

Bill Sher, a contributor to Politico magazine, political editor of Washington Monthly, and co-host of The DMZ online show, believes that it would be a mistake to assume that putin has completely secured himself and the country from an internal coup, because it is not known whether his "methods" will continue to work. Moreover, according to Sher, the death of the russian dictator may come from within the kremlin.

Instead, John McLaughlin, former acting director and deputy director of the CIA in 2000-2004, believes that russian mothers who lost their children in Ukraine may rise up against putin. 

"So, a 'black swan' event that does not meet expectations for russia could be a prolonged revolt of russian mothers due to the high losses of russian troops in Ukraine (as happened during the occupation of Afghanistan and the war in Chechnya), which will gain momentum during the presidential elections in russia and undermine the mass support that putin is waiting for," he said.

Digital apocalypse

According to Charlie Sykes, editor-in-chief of Bulwark magazine, the entire year of 2024 could be a kind of "black swan" because "America may elect a convicted felon to the highest office. Swans don't get any blacker than that." But what else could go wrong?

"In 2020, no one foresaw a global pandemic, but in 2024, we could be hit by a global digital virus. What if computers and satellites stop working? Even for a few days? What if a virus attacked the global banking system, evaporating trillions of dollars of wealth?" Sykes says.

These are not all the experts' predictions; among the proposed "black swans" were also messages from outer space and alien invasions, global warming and other natural disasters. 

"The world has never been so disorderly in living memory," said journalist Walter Lippmann in 1968. "This is an apt observation for 2024," Joshua Zeitz summarized.

We remind you! The Ukrainian counteroffensive failed to achieve the expected result, despite loud statements and optimistic planning. Read how Ukraine and the United States planned the offensive, why expectations were not met, and what it meant for Ukraine in our previous article.

Want to know more? Read the latest news and useful materials about Ukraine and the world in the News section.

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