Der Aufstand von Prigozhin zeigte der Welt Putins Schwäche. Warum ist es noch nicht vorbei?

Die Rückkehr der Wagnerianer zu den Feldlagern zeigt, dass Prigozhin gescheitert ist, die militärische Führung Russlands zu stürzen. Erfahren Sie, warum Experten allgemein sagen, dass der Aufstand nur den Beginn irreversibler Ereignisse markiert.

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Prigozhin accepted the conditions of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and turned his "march of justice" in the opposite direction. However, the process that started in russia as a result of the Wagner uprising is irreversible. The vast majority of analysts and experts agree on this point. So what are the weaknesses of russia and putin in particular that the attempted military coup has exposed and why does the world agree that this is only the beginning?

Have the prerequisites for a civil war disappeared?

putin's weakness, seen by the whole world

On the morning of June 24, putin made an official speech and called for an end to the civil war. In addition, he called Prigozhin's actions a stab in the back and emphasized that criminal proceedings had been opened against the leader of the Wagner PMC for attempting a military coup. 

However, instead of stopping the Wagnerites by force, putin fled moscow, and after Lukashenko's talks with Prigozhin, he dropped all charges against the latter, which shows the dictator's fear and the collapse of the image of an authoritarian leader that he had been so diligently creating for decades.

In addition, these events have shown the whole world that putin has actually lost power, and therefore russian oligarchs and the country's power bloc will sooner or later take advantage of this opportunity, as the split in russian society has already occurred. This is evidenced by the massive transition of the russian military to the side of the Wagner PMC.

russia is not an empire: how did it happen that wagner's men reached moscow in less than a day?

Recent events have proved that the "majestic russia" that the world is supposed to fear so much does not even have internal reserves to prevent or stop a potential military uprising. Conscripts, municipal workers, and small groups of the russian guard were thrown in to defend moscow, and they would not have been able to stop even a 5,000-strong military group. The fall of moscow did not happen only because Prigozhin backed down and turned his columns in the opposite direction. 

Moreover, we have to remember that putin pulled all the "reserves" to defend the capital, while other regions were taken without a fight, which eloquently proves that russia is not capable of defending its own territories.

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The split in society and the lack of "punishment" for those who went against the government

Those who sided with putin expected a "majestic reprisal" against the Wagnerites and those who joined them. However, there was no punishment, and Prigozhin even got away with destroying the aircraft and killing 13 russian pilots.

So society saw that the Wagner leader and his mercenaries could do anything and would not be punished for it. 

And given the fact that they were simply released, future attempts to "destroy the perpetrators" are doomed to failure. After all, any attempts to bring anyone to justice will lead to an uprising that can hardly be "turned around by negotiations with Lukashenko."

In addition, it is known that not only the army, but also some representatives of the FSB, the rosgvardia, and the regional elite have sided with the Wagnerians. This means that hundreds of thousands of people have spoken out against putin, and they are ready to follow Prigozhin's lead at any time. And it is impossible to punish them for supporting Wagner, because this will only lead to the shaking of the power apparatus, which has barely survived the recent events.

What about those who are now dying for putin in Ukraine?

The russian troops who are now "destroying nazis" in Ukraine and "protecting russia from NATO" have seen not only that putin has fled the kremlin with his tail between his legs, but also that they can leave their positions without being punished. Moreover, it is possible to march on moscow with weapons and not be punished for it. So, what the russian occupiers feel about their positions and what it will eventually lead to will be clear in the coming days.

In addition, the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces took advantage of the confusion of the russian troops and liberated many territories in two days, including several settlements that had been under occupation since 2014, adds fuel to the fire.

Thus, the prerequisites for civil war and the collapse of the russian federation have only increased, and so we can only watch to see who will take this first step to overthrow the putin regime. Moreover, the weakness of the russian federation has been seen by its dependent countries, and even in Belarus, opposition forces have become active, seeking to free themselves from the russians' invasive clutches.

We remind you that volunteers from 55 countries serve in the International Legion of Ukraine. Read more about who has come to Ukraine's aid and what the goals of those who are now on the battlefield defending Ukrainian territories from the russian horde are in our previous article.

Photo: Getty Images

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