30 days of silence: will there be a truce in Ukraine?

The war in Ukraine has been going on for more than three years. But recently, the United States and Ukraine have been intensively seeking ways to end the hostilities. In this regard, Ukraine and its allies have proposed a 30-day ceasefire to russia. Find out if the fighting will stop in the near future and what you need to know about it

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In recent days, the whole world has been closely watching the situation surrounding the Ukrainian-russian war, as the sides seem to be closer to a truce than at any time since russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. The ceasefire process is expected to be delayed by the russian side, but very soon representatives of the two countries may sit down at the negotiating table, and the long-awaited silence will come to the front. We analyse what to expect from the military situation in the coming weeks, and perhaps even in the coming days.

Ceasefire in Ukraine: who proposed it and what are the parties saying about it?

Talks about a 30-day truce began quite a long time ago — back in early March, during negotiations between US and Ukrainian delegations in Saudi Arabia, a proposal to this effect was made publicly for the first time by representatives of Washington.

However, at that time, the russian side put forward a number of demands, including the surrender of Ukrainian soldiers in the Kursk region, the cessation of mobilisation in Ukraine, the lifting of sanctions and reconnection to the SWIFT system.

On 9 May, while a military parade was taking place in moscow and a three-day ceasefire proposed by putin was supposedly being observed on the front lines, messages began to appear again in the media and from Ukraine's Western allies about the possible imminent conclusion of a long-term ceasefire agreement between the warring parties.

The relevant decision was discussed on 10 May between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the leaders of France, Britain and Germany – Emmanuel Macron, Boris Johnson and Friedrich Merz. Following the talks, Ukraine proposed that russia begin a ceasefire on 12 May, but this proposal was rejected by putin, who said that russia was only prepared to discuss a ceasefire in direct talks with Ukraine. Putin even set the date and venue for these talks: 15 May in Istanbul.

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Negotiations in Istanbul on 15 May: what to expect?

‘We propose that the Kyiv authorities resume direct negotiations, which were interrupted at the end of 2022. We propose to resume them on Thursday (15 May) in Istanbul. Where they were interrupted,’ putin said during a press conference after midnight on 11 May.

US President Donald Trump, from whom everyone had been waiting for at least some kind of position on the 30-day ceasefire proposed by Ukraine and its European allies, posted on his social media account Truth Social, saying that Ukraine should ‘immediately’ accept putin's proposal and go to Istanbul for talks.

It should be noted that Ukraine's position had been determined earlier: first a ceasefire, then negotiations. But despite this, the Ukrainian president accepted putin's proposal and stated the following:

‘I will be in Turkey this Thursday, 15 May, and I am waiting for putin in Turkey. In person. And I hope that this time putin will not look for reasons why he cannot do something.’

Meanwhile, in Turkey, there is hope that the warring parties ‘will come together to reach a compromise in the coming days.’

Trump also said on 12 May that Thursday's meeting between russia and Ukraine is very important and could have positive results.

Thus, it is to be expected that direct talks between Ukraine and russia may resume in Turkey, where the parties are likely to reach a decision on a ceasefire.

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Recall that the United States, Ukraine and russia are continuing negotiations aimed at ending military operations. Delegations from the countries have already held several meetings and adopted a number of decisions. Find out what is known about the peace talks in Ukraine.

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