Putin sta preparando una nuova offensiva su Kiev?

Kiev è stata nel mirino dell'esercito russo sin dall'inizio della guerra, e dopo un tentativo fallito nel 2022, gli occupanti potrebbero lanciare nuovamente un'offensiva contro la capitale ucraina. Scopri cosa dicono i generali militari e ucraini su questi rischi

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Russia is once again talking about its desire to capture the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv. Despite the fact that the occupiers' first attempt failed, they still profess the goal of completely capturing Ukraine and subjugating the Ukrainian people. 

In a recent interview with russian propagandists, Deputy Head of the russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, speaking about the war against Ukraine, shared his opinion on where russia should "stop".

"Probably, it should be Kyiv. If not now, then after a while. For two reasons. Kyiv is a russian city. And there is a threat to the existence of the russian federation from there", the former russian president said.

What can the russians prepare?

According to the Financial Times, citing sources in the Ukrainian military command, russia may be planning a large-scale offensive in Ukraine as early as this summer.

By the way, the same opinion was expressed by the Ukrainian president during the forum "Ukraine. Year 2024" forum, saying that Ukraine would face difficult months ahead, as the russian army would be preparing a major offensive in late May or early June.

Meanwhile, the FT interlocutors say that the goal of the large-scale offensive will be to completely capture Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. In addition, the Ukrainian military does not rule out another attempt by russia to capture Kharkiv or even Kyiv.

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Is the russian federation moving equipment to Belarus?

On Wednesday, 28 February, the guerrilla movement "ATESH" wrote in their Telegram that their agents had noticed the transfer of russian equipment to Belarus. Initially, there reported the arrival of a large column of equipment in Minsk. In total, about 60 units, of which the main part is BMP-2, as well as 4MT-LB.

Later, this information was denied by analysts of the Belarusian group "Belarusian Hajun", saying that their people had not observed any activity of russian equipment in the country. They noted that the equipment, which could be seen by the guerrillas, belonged to the Belarusian army.

ATESH quickly corrected themselves and admitted that they were mistaken about the russian equipment.

What do the military and Ukrainian generals think?

According to Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of the Defence Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate, in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine, as of the end of February, the russians do not have the strength to launch an offensive on the western strategic direction, i.e. Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv and Kyiv.

He stressed that russia is "definitely" unable to conduct such large-scale operations on two fronts at once (east-south and west).

"The russian Federation does not have a strategic reserve at the moment, they are trying to create one. Everything that was created was immediately brought to our territory. The 18th Army, the 25th Army, the 3rd Army Corps - they are all fighting, there is no reserve", Skibitsky explained.

At the recent forum "Ukraine. Year 2024" forum also denied information about plans for a second attempt to advance the russian army from the north: "They have been scaring us for two years now: they will come from there... I am tired of answering everyone from there. It's not true".

However, analysts believe that we should be prepared for an attack on Kyiv, as the russian leadership has not abandoned its goals, and the russians can move troops to Belarus and the Chernihiv border in a matter of weeks. However, the concentration of the occupiers along Ukraine's northern border will be recorded by the military and intelligence. According to various estimates, such a concentration will be visible at least a month before the actual action, and possibly earlier, as the movement of large troop formations cannot be concealed in the face of satellite intelligence.

Kyiv fortified in case of attack

The former commander of the Armed Forces' operational and strategic grouping 'North', Serhiy Nayev, who is responsible for this area and was dismissed after the resignation of Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhny, previously said that Ukraine's northern border was fortified in case of a repeat russian offensive.

"Each platoon stronghold consists of four to five strips of engineering barriers. These are an anti-tank ditch, a minefield, tetrahedrons, barbed wire and a minefield again", he said.

It is worth noting that the tetrahedrons mentioned by Nayev are popularly called "dragon's teeth". It is these anti-tank concrete barriers that the russians used in preparation for the Ukrainian offensive in the Zaporizhzhia sector.

We remind you! Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took part in the forum "Ukraine. Year 2024" forum, where he spoke about the help of partners and the importance of the coming year. Here's what the president said and what his hopes for 2024 are.

Photo: Nikolay Anatskyi

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