Stromengpässe werden in der Ukraine erwartet: Wird es Stromausfälle geben?

Die Ukraine hat den Winter ohne großflächige Stromausfälle überstanden, teilweise weil das Wetter nicht zu kalt war. Die Situation im Stromnetz ist derzeit unter Kontrolle, aber die Lage könnte sich näher zum Sommer ändern. Erfahren Sie, worauf Sie sich vorbereiten sollten

Versicherung mit Kriegsrisikodeckung für sicheren Eintritt und Aufenthalt in der Ukraine

KAUFEN

The heating season in Ukraine is coming to an end. Unlike the previous two winters, this one was much calmer, with no massive and prolonged power cuts. The only exceptions were emergency shutdowns in certain regions and short planned restrictions in December following massive attacks by the Russians.

Despite the fact that the situation was relatively normal in winter, the situation may change somewhat in the near future, Epravda reports.

What is the reason for this?

With the onset of spring, Ukraine traditionally starts a repair campaign at nuclear power plants, which lasts almost until the beginning of the next autumn-winter period. During this time, all nine nuclear power units have to undergo preventive maintenance, including nuclear fuel reloading where necessary.

The repair schedules are planned annually by Ukrenergo and approved by the Ministry of Energy. They are not published in the public domain, as they take into account the risks of possible shelling by the Russian Federation. The main idea is to ensure that all nuclear units are ready to operate at full capacity during the coldest period of the year.

However, even now, with the start of repairs to one of the units, the load on the system is increasing: if the temperature outside still does not allow for a reduction in consumption and there are no generation reserves, the shutdown of even one 1,000-megawatt unit could lead to a shortage.

Weather will play a key role

One of the main factors that allowed Ukraine to get through the peak winter periods with flying colours was the increased water flow in the Dnipro and Desna rivers. This allowed hydroelectric power plants to generate record amounts of electricity even during the cold months.

This year, however, the situation is unlikely to be repeated: the winter was snowy and precipitation was below normal. ‘Ukrhydrometcenter confirms that the floods will be weaker and, as a result, the amount of available hydroelectric power will be significantly lower than last year. According to some estimates, the water supply in 2025 may be three times less than last year, which is guaranteed to add risks to the power system.

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How to cover the deficit?

All of these factors, even without taking into account possible new shelling, already mean a potential shortage in the power grid in spring and summer. However, this does not necessarily mean massive blackouts. There are several tools available to mitigate the power shortage:

Importing electricity from the EU. From 1 December 2024, the European network of electricity transmission operators ENTSO-E increased the import limit for Ukraine from 1,700 to 2,100 MW. In addition, up to 250 MW can be obtained in emergency mode in case of urgent need.

Internal reserves. First of all, we are talking about thermal generation. If necessary, units that are in reserve and not damaged by attacks can be launched.

Restrictions on consumers. If the previous measures are not enough, restrictions on industry are possible. The last resort, which the government will try to use as a last resort, is to cut off power to households, small and medium-sized businesses.

Will there be power cuts in the coming months?

In March-April, when repairs at nuclear power plants begin, but the weather is still quite cool and electricity consumption remains high, there may be an increase in the power system deficit. In this case, the grid operator, Ukrenergo, may resort to imports or load restrictions, particularly for industry at first. If the shelling damages generation facilities or the grid, the risk of blackouts for the population will increase.

However, some experts are more optimistic. They point out that in the absence of massive attacks on the energy sector and with sufficient imports from the EU, there may not be any significant restrictions for the population in the coming months.

What do you need to know about summer maintenance?

The peak of repair work at nuclear power plants usually occurs in the summer, when overall electricity consumption decreases due to the lack of heating. However, in July 2024, Ukrainians experienced serious interruptions: in some regions, there was only 6-8 hours of electricity a day.

This time, according to energy companies, repairs at nuclear power plants have been optimised based on last year's experience. Despite the fact that the largest deficit is expected to occur again in July, they expect to compensate for the lack of generation by importing from the EU. If at some point imports become unavailable or too expensive, restrictions may be imposed, but major market players expect such scenarios to be unlikely.

Should we postpone generators and charging stations?

Despite the fact that Ukraine has had a relatively calm winter, energy companies and government managers are in no hurry to make optimistic statements for the long term. It is still unclear whether the intensity of shelling of infrastructure will change and how the weather conditions will develop next season.

Experts advise not to rush to sell alternative energy sources and charge storage devices. ‘We will return to this issue in a year's time,’ says one of the representatives of an energy company, pointing out that the risks of returning to forced restrictions still remain.

By the way, foreigners travelling to Ukraine should also be prepared for power outages. Ukraine is still in a difficult military situation and the shelling by russia has recently become more intense. Given the situation, many foreigners take out insurance covering military risks before travelling to Ukraine. Such insurance can be purchased on the Visit Ukraine portal.

We remind you! Unfortunately, air raids and rocket attacks have been a reality in Ukraine for almost 3 years now. Therefore, foreigners, who, unlike Ukrainians, are not adapted to such situations, may find themselves in a dangerous situation. We told you how to behave in an air raid situation to protect your life as much as possible.

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