Was passiert mit der Elektrizität: aktuelle Prognosen und was in naher Zukunft zu erwarten ist

Aufgrund massiver Raketenangriffe bleibt die Energiesituation in der Ukraine schwierig. Erfahren Sie mehr über die Prognosen zur Dauer der Stromausfälle und die Arbeit der neuen Regierungs-Hotline „Strum“

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FOLGEN

Ukraine managed to get through the heating season relatively smoothly. However, due to massive rocket attacks, blackout schedules have been returned since May to restore critical infrastructure after large-scale Russian shelling. In the last 3 months alone, 9.2 GW of Ukrainian generation capacity was destroyed. 

Unfortunately, in the coming years, Ukrainians should prepare to live with regular blackouts. We will talk about the projected duration of the schedules in today's article.

In our previous article, we said that due to the electricity shortage, the government may introduce changes to school schedules.

Current situation with the energy sector in Ukraine

DTEK CEO Maxim Timchenko reports that almost 90% of the company's generating capacity has been destroyed. Thermal and hydroelectric power plants suffered the most from the spring missile attacks. Power lines have become a new front line. 

Before the full-scale invasion, Ukraine's generating capacity amounted to 36 GW of electricity. By the end of 2022, half of this capacity was lost due to large-scale missile attacks. This year's attacks have destroyed another 9 GW of capacity. Almost all that remains is generation from nuclear power plants. The occupiers' attacks continue, and Ukraine does not have enough air defense batteries to shoot down missiles.

Currently, Ukraine imports 1.7 GW of electricity from Europe. This volume may be increased to 2 GW. According to optimistic forecasts, by the winter of 2024-2025, it will be possible to restore another 2-3 GW of capacity. However, no one is safe from the fact that the repaired power plants will not become a repeated target for the occupier.

Ukraine has too little time and money to install several hundred small power plants, restore bombed-out power plants, or build wind and solar power plants. After all, there are only a few months left before winter and the start of the heating season. Therefore, rolling blackouts will become a regular routine for Ukrainians in the coming years.

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Government hotline on energy issues

The government's hotline, Strum, at 15-49, will offer advice on electricity issues. For example, anyone can contact the service with a request to install an alternative energy source to ensure their own energy independence.

The hotline operators can provide information on government financial support programs for the installation of additional power generation capacity and other current issues related to the energy sector.

You can learn more about UZ flights, where you can recharge your vehicles even during the blackout, here.

The electricity situation will improve soon

According to Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center, there may be no blackouts at all in the fall. However, the energy situation in winter will be difficult.

The situation may improve significantly by Monday, July 22. And over the next few weeks, the blackout schedules will become somewhat shorter. The next such improvement in electricity supply is expected in late August. And in September and October, there may be no outages for private consumers at all.

With the onset of cold weather and the start of the heating season, the situation will become more complicated. There are already several scenarios for the winter. If the damaged power plants are regularly repaired and Russian shelling does not recur, Ukrainians will be without power for only 3-6 hours a day.

If the rocket attacks continue, in winter the power may be cut off for 8-12 hours a day. And the most pessimistic scenario involves the complete destruction of the restored power units. In this case, consumers will have electricity for only 4-6 hours a day. In general, outage schedules of various durations in Ukraine will continue at least until the end of 2026. 

We remind you! The power sector canceled the “day without power outages” for Ukrainian regions from July 9 to 24 and announced enhanced outage schedules for consumers. Read more about the reasons for the cancellation and the new schedule.

Want to know more? Read the latest news and useful materials about Ukraine and the world in the News section.

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