Es wird schwierig: Welche Ereignisse an der Front sagt Budanov für Mai voraus?

Der ukrainische Geheimdienstchef Kiryl Budanov hat bereits für die kommenden Monate eine schwierige Situation in der Ukraine vorhergesagt. Diese Vorhersagen stehen vor dem Hintergrund der Vorbereitungen der Russen für eine Offensive und während die russischen Geheimdienste weiterhin Sonderoperationen zur Destabilisierung der Situation in der Ukraine durchführen. Erfahren Sie, was bereits im Mai zu erwarten ist und welche Vorhersagen von US-Militäranalysten gemacht werden.

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Amid constant talk about a future russian offensive in Ukraine, the head of the Ukrainian intelligence service, Kirill Budanov, has made a prediction about the situation on the front in the coming months in an interview with the BBC. Thus, according to him, Ukraine will face a rather difficult situation as early as mid-May.

"We are waiting for a rather difficult, according to our assessment, the situation in the near future. But it is not catastrophic, it should also be understood. Armageddon will not happen, as many are now starting to say. But there will be problems from the middle of May," the chief intelligence officer of Ukraine believes.

Budanov noted that the russian army is currently conducting a complex operation. According to him, the difficult period will be in mid-May and early June.

Responding to a clarifying question whether it is also about the domestic political situation, the intelligence chief said that "it is about everything."

Special operation of the russians

As we know, for quite some time now, according to the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine, russian special services have been carrying out a special operation to destabilise Ukraine. This operation is called "Maidan-3".

As part of the operation "Maidan-3", the occupants want to shake up the situation inside Ukraine. russians consider its successful end to be mass protests across the country and distrust in the authorities.

The russians also have main directions in this operation: disrupting Ukrainian mobilisation, spreading disinformation about Ukraine's inability to win, creating and spreading fakes about Ukraine fatigue among our partners and allies in the world. The global international goal of the russians is to reduce support for our country from the pro-Ukrainian coalition in the world.

In addition, the russian security services want to question the legitimacy of the power decisions taken in Ukraine after 20 May. It is worth noting that this is the last date of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's cadence as president. The occupiers want to play on the fact that the Ukrainian leader no longer has powers because his presidency has expired. But Ukraine's constitution explicitly states that the presidential term cannot expire without elections, and elections during the war are impossible.

According to intelligence information, the special operation "Maidan-3" will reach its own culmination before May 2024

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Situation on the front: forecasts from Zelensky and analysts

Back at the end of March, the American Institute for the Study of War wrote that russian troops are likely to continue offensive operations until spring 2024 and prepare for a summer offensive.

Recently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with NBC News that the aggressor country plans to launch a full-scale counter-offensive as early as June. For this purpose, russia wants to mobilise 300 thousand fighters by 1 June.

The Institute for the Study of War believes that moscow may reconsider its intentions regarding the full-scale operation, which is to begin in June. After all, when it was planned, military aid from the US was still "hanging by a thread". Now, however, it is obvious that the states will send military support to Ukraine.

Thus, the Ukrainian army can interfere with russian plans. 

We remind you! After the occupation of Avdeevka, the russia troops received a new goal from the leadership - to capture Chasov Yar before 9 May. Why this settlement is a key strategic site in eastern Ukraine and how russia is trying to gain an advantage on the battlefield, we tell you here.

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